Last things

Discussion in 'The Commons' started by Rev2104, Nov 12, 2018.

  1. AnglicanAgnostic

    AnglicanAgnostic Active Member

    Posts:
    235
    Likes Received:
    75
    Country:
    New Zealand
    Religion:
    none
    Botolph your stats look similar to ours. We went relatively hard and early with the lockdown.
     

    Attached Files:

    Tiffy and Botolph like this.
  2. Botolph

    Botolph Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,157
    Likes Received:
    1,392
    Country:
    Australia
    Religion:
    Anglican
    upload_2020-4-10_10-41-47.png

    I based this table on the stats on the covid map by Google. https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en

    When I look at the fatality rate by caseload based on this raw data, It seems that the US has a comparatively low death rate per case, (as indeed does Australia). It would be interesting to understand what attributes to these differences. On the strength of this raw data, it would seem most likely that the US is not inflating the death rate significantly.

    I understand the argument, about the attribution of the cause. If someone with a significant heart condition and advanced cancer was involved in a fatal car accident, we are most likely to record the death as a car accident. Would they have died at that time without the car accident? Probably not. So if someone with a significant heart condition and advanced cancer catches Covid 19 and then dies within a short time frame, we are most likely to record the death as Covid 19. Would they have died at that time without Covid 19? Probably not.

    Back to the numbers, the difference in fatality rates between France and Germany certainly suggests that we should try to understand the difference.

    So, I suggest we should stay safe and stay at home. As Christians we should desire to be part of the solution, not part of the problem.

    My Facebook favorite meme of the day on the subject reads

    The spread of Covid 19 depends is based on two factors
    1. How dense the population is
    2. How dense the population is
     
    Tiffy likes this.
  3. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    The right-hand column is more technically called the "case fatality rate," I believe. This rate varies wildly, both from location to location and from week to week in any given location. It is not a dependable indicator, from what I've read on statistics. The CFR will increase the closer one gets to the tail end of the 'curve'. And it will vary according to the average age of a region's population, the quality of health care in general in a region, and loads of other little factors.

    The newest official estimate for the total USA deaths from this outbreak is around 60,000 total deaths. That includes those who die after we reopen things (because we've flattened the curve) and more catch it. This would be roughly equivalent to the total deaths during any year's flu season here. But that number is in addition to the regular flu deaths this year, and these Covid19 deaths largely came in a big cluster which could choke some hospitals like a too-large slug of whiskey down a narrow windpipe.

    I don't have the graphic, but my wife said she saw this next thing: someone had shown a US map of where the most Covid-19 deaths were located, and compared it to a US map of where the most abortions take place... and it matched up rather well. Coincidence? I don't know.
     
  4. Botolph

    Botolph Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,157
    Likes Received:
    1,392
    Country:
    Australia
    Religion:
    Anglican
    I agree that there will be any number of factors that will affect the variance. I do make the point the France and Germany are two European Countries that have not dissimilar land masses, not dissimilar populations, and a common boundary, yet Germany seems to have significant more cases and significantly less fatalities than France by a significant measure. As this variance is statistically significant, it does allow the question as to why. Is France over-reporting or is Germany under-reporting, or is there some other reason for the significant difference? I know not the answer.

    Given that the figures are cumulative the variances along the progression of the virus will be somewhat flattened out, and I am sure that some variances will not be explained in the short term.

    In the end the other important thing to remember that they are not just statistics, but rather persons - each made in the image and after the likeness of God.
     
  5. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    You are very fortunate in that you have a very competent and well advised Prime Minister.
    .
     
  6. Botolph

    Botolph Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,157
    Likes Received:
    1,392
    Country:
    Australia
    Religion:
    Anglican
    A survey in Australia for preferred Prime Minister - Morrison or Shorten produced the result Ardern!
     
  7. AnglicanAgnostic

    AnglicanAgnostic Active Member

    Posts:
    235
    Likes Received:
    75
    Country:
    New Zealand
    Religion:
    none
    Thank you every one. I wonder if it's because she's a non believing unmarried mother :p :D

    By the way we now have two deaths, two women in their seventies and nineties with underlying health issues
     
  8. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    Not judgemental at all then. :laugh:
    .
     
  9. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    The noted economist, Martin Armstrong, made an interesting blog post this morning:

    I have a friend in London whose mother went to the hospital and he knew she was near death. After two days, the hospital claimed she died of the Coronavirus. He said how since she did not go in with that? The joke in London is that COVID-19 is the miracle cure. Nobody in London has died from a heart attack, only COVID.

    Senator Dr. Scott Jensen of Minnesota came out to expose how the AMA is encouraging American doctors to overcount coronavirus deaths across the US. He showed a 7-page document coaching him, as a doctor, to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. Why? Because of the package for this relief, hospitals are paid more to attend this virus. NOBODY is dying of the flu any more – only COVID-19.
    The US government's trillion-dollar handout encourages the medical industry to over-report Covid-19 deaths. Perhaps there are similar monetary incentives in the UK?
     
  10. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    Very similar in intellect to the 5G virus conspiracy. Not worth paying attention to.

    Is this the same, or a different Martin A Armstrong?

    Believing such tripe can be damaging to mental health.
    .
     
  11. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    Same one. What the wikipedia article doesn't tell you is that he has been called upon for economic counsel by many of our presidents including Reagan, and he continues to be called upon by heads of state globally. He was locked up without a trial for several years and denied medical treatment, but survived. The US Supreme Court subsequently ruled that he was treated illegally, but his enemies perpetuate the libels against him. It is best to view both sides of a story before passing judgment on a man.
     
  12. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    Know them by their fruit.
     
  13. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    Yes, would you like to drag Senator Jensen's name through the mud also?
     
  14. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    What are his fruit like? Deeds, not words.

    The more a society departs from the truth, the more that society hates those who speak it.
    .
     
  15. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    That's the truth! :cheers:

    Wouldn't you say that society is pretty far from the truth nowadays?

    Seems like society overall welcomes what you've been saying, while those who say what I say are treated like nutballs and pariahs by society. :hmm:
     
  16. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    Seems about 60%+ believe Trump, so no, I woudn't say that. :laugh: I'd say only 60%+ are pretty far from the truth. :yes: But then I have never understood American politics. Democrats are content to live in a Republic and Republicans claim to be ardently Democratic yet neither ever agree with one another. Seems like a Nation divided by a common political system, run entirely by millionaires to serve their own interests.

    But I may be wrong. :wicked: :laugh:
    .
     
  17. Tiffy

    Tiffy Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    940
    Likes Received:
    318
    Country:
    UK
    Religion:
    CofE
    The USA is now the first country in the world to reach 2000 COVID19 deaths per day with little sign of the trend abating yet.

    This is an "America First" statistic that Christians have prayed not to see.

    The UK now has the highest number of COVID19 deaths in Europe and aproaching close on 1000 COVID19 deaths a day and does not yet definitely know if we have reached the peak yet.
    .
     
  18. Rexlion

    Rexlion Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    795
    Likes Received:
    450
    Country:
    USA
    Religion:
    Christian
    Maybe I can help you understand American politics. Here's all you need to know, really:
    1. Almost all Republicans are pro-life, and their party platform gives some credit to God.
    2. Almost all Democrats are pro-death, and their party platform purposely excludes God.
     
  19. Botolph

    Botolph Well-Known Member

    Posts:
    1,157
    Likes Received:
    1,392
    Country:
    Australia
    Religion:
    Anglican
    I suspect you may be doing a disservice to American Politics, which I have observed is a very expensive game.

    Whilst simplicities rarely stand up, I would have thought that the key difference was about their attitude to money, where the Democrats seem to believe that it was made round to go round, whilst the Republicans believe it was made flat to stack.

    What I really don't understand is why for the last several years the Presidential race has been dominated by more senior citizens.
     
    Tiffy likes this.
  20. bwallac2335

    bwallac2335 Active Member

    Posts:
    316
    Likes Received:
    167
    Religion:
    ACNA
    His formula while not detailing all the differences between Democrats and Republicans was right in what he posted. Now we have Trump verses Biden. Trump's flaws are well known but Biden seems to be losing his mind.
     
    Rexlion likes this.

Share This Page