Example 1: a patient is admitted to the hospital with congestive heart failure. After 2 weeks in intensive care he contracts Covid-19, and 5 days later he dies. The doctors code cause of death as the virus, when he was already dying. Example 2: a patient is admitted to the hospital with Covid-19. After fighting the virus for a week she is improving, but then she develops bacterial pneumonia, or influenza, or some other disease which causes her to rapidly worsen, and 4 days later she dies. Doctors don't do an autopsy, but she tested positive upon admittance, so they code the cause of death as Covid-19. There are 2 broad types of examples of how the coding guidance does and will lead to overstating the mortality rate of this virus. When you add in the fact that some doctors are motivated to want more PPE or whatnot, and bumping the numbers upward to make Covid-19 look more serious will aid them in getting things, I think the loose language in the NVSS advisory is a permission and an encouragement to overstate the mortality rate of the virus.
A drowning man will clutch at even a straw. Neither of your examples really makes a convincing case for proving the mass 'massaging' of COVID deaths as opposed to other unrelated deaths, and the apalling lack of 'disposable' PPEquipment, (it needs regular replacement), though an incentive perhaps for medical staff to 'bump up the figures', is a pretty poor explanation for why they don't have enough in the first place. As I previously said, there would seem to be considerably greater political advantage for the 'establishment' to play DOWN the figures than there would be for others to exaggerate them. In the UK only the 'Deaths in Hospital' total for the day are being broadcast. Deaths in care homes and at home are not included, so it is likely that the numbers are actually an underestimation rather than an exaggeration. It is also more likely that Governments will broadcast underestimates in order to calm public fears and avoid public panic which would just cause even more deaths. .
As I write the number being reported worldwide is 81,200. Would anybody care to guess how over or under inflated that number is? At the end of the day it does not matter, because it is clearly a significant number. I am sure we do not need the wait until the number looks like the numbers of the Black Plague or the Spanish Influenza to take the matter seriously.
Apparently South Korea already have 51 people thought to have recovered, found on testing to have become infectious again so have been re-isolated. .
During my interactions on various forums during the past 3 weeks, I have noticed something curious. Broadly speaking (and there are always exceptions), it seems that most people who wholeheartedly support the shutdown and social isolation measures are also politically liberal/progressive, while most who strongly feel that the implementation of these measures is a huge mistake and unwarranted are also politically conservative. It's an interesting thing to see this general alignment. On one RV forum in particular, a rift has developed between the two groups over time. One of the other predominating features of this rift was the Christians versus non-Christians aspect; on that particular forum the liberal/progressive members tend to be vocal against Christianity and the conservatives tend to show their Christian faith when possible. That got me thinking and wondering if the RV forum were an exception or typical. Looking to Pew Research statistics, I learned that the vast majority of US Christians are either Republican or middle of the road politically, while the vast majority of muslims, jewish, agnostics, atheists, hindus, buddhists, etc are Democrat. Now, what is the largest, most impactful difference between (true) Christians and non-Christians? I submit that the difference is the indwelling Holy Spirit, whom Christians have and non-Christians lack. The Holy Spirit is the wise Counselor and Helper to the members of Christ's body, is he not? God is the wisest being in all the universe and the source of all genuine wisdom. I think the Holy Spirit is the difference-maker for those who hear His voice. (Again I'll reiterate that when I talk about political leanings and other stuff I'm merely speaking in broad terms, not singling out individuals; we all are products of our upbringing and past experiences to a large degree; and besides that, God places different people on different paths for reasons of His own.) One area where this difference will become massively important, in the very last days, is the time when people are faced with the decisions of (1) whether to believe that the Antichrist is an amazing, wonderful leader who deserves to be followed, and (2) whether to accept the mark of the beast in order to 'get by in life' (it may be required for food purchases!). Those who lack the Holy Spirit and those who hear Him but faintly will be far more likely to accept these changes, and far less likely to recognize the evil behind them, than those who have an intimate relationship with the Holy Spirit. Speaking in generalities yet again, I think we should be able to observe more of the liberal/progressive people accepting the changes, and more of the conservatives rejecting them. Thoughts?
Scientists have isolated something like 8 different strains of the virus, so it's like flu in that regard; one can catch flu and a month later catch flu again. So, yeah this is believable. And it's one more reason why we should just un-isolate and get some herd immunity built up, while only the elderly and those with existing conditions self-isolate... just like during a bad flu season. Otherwise we're going to be at this until it's time for next fall's virus season.
And overwhelm an already inundated PPE starved, test limited, health system with fresh COVID 'serious cases' while you try to gain a 'herd immunity' which no one has, as yet, proved exists after a 'mild case' recovery. Good luck with that! Like I said at the start, if you get this wrong, your population in the USA may be in for a rough ride due to your political, economic and educational norms. Even if it only gets as bad as 1918-20 Spanish Flu, that would be pretty devastating, and by all accounts this virus is more virulent and deadly than any previous 'Flu'. .
As I suspected the reported death rates are considerably UNDER reported due to the way the data is selectively presented and released here in the UK. I cannot guess what the US practice might be, but I can guess the 'authorities' will not want to risk 'exaggerating' them at all, so will probably use the same statistical tactics to calm public fears.
In NSW restrictions began to ramp up from about the 15th, and much more strongly from the 22nd. We can now be fined $1000 for being out of the house without a valid reason, however valid reasons include work, shopping, visiting doctor and medical appointments and exercise. The 31st of March saw a ramp up in testing, including testing in drive through tents in hot spots like Bondi Beach. The other thing of note is that the passengers from the Ruby Princess from which passengers disembarked the 19th of March account for about a third of the deaths we have had, and together with their known contacts about a third of the caseload. We have now pretty much sealed our borders, and anyone coming in from OS has to go into mandatory isolation, normally locked in a hotel room, for 14 days. Most of us have some confidence that the authorities are managing it well, and are keeping us informed. I realise against the numbers and the populations of big cities and jurisdictions on the other side of the world this looks trivial, however I think if we can garner enough public good will, social distancing, good hygiene and isolation measures can produce results. I guess what we don't know is if flattening the curve simply expands out the timeline rather than just getting it over and done with. My feeling is if it does extend the curve, at least we will be dealing with a rate of infection our health services can manage, though it may put additional long term economic costs. At the moment we are putting people ahead of profits. That being said prices at the supermarket seem to have floated higher, and the price of fuel has dropped, I guess because we are not driving as much.
There are probably many reasons that statistics are not necessarily completely giving an accurate picture of what is happening currently, and that may be one of them, certainly. All the more reason for caution when Governments consider their exit strategies. .
I based this table on the stats on the covid map by Google. https://google.com/covid19-map/?hl=en When I look at the fatality rate by caseload based on this raw data, It seems that the US has a comparatively low death rate per case, (as indeed does Australia). It would be interesting to understand what attributes to these differences. On the strength of this raw data, it would seem most likely that the US is not inflating the death rate significantly. I understand the argument, about the attribution of the cause. If someone with a significant heart condition and advanced cancer was involved in a fatal car accident, we are most likely to record the death as a car accident. Would they have died at that time without the car accident? Probably not. So if someone with a significant heart condition and advanced cancer catches Covid 19 and then dies within a short time frame, we are most likely to record the death as Covid 19. Would they have died at that time without Covid 19? Probably not. Back to the numbers, the difference in fatality rates between France and Germany certainly suggests that we should try to understand the difference. So, I suggest we should stay safe and stay at home. As Christians we should desire to be part of the solution, not part of the problem. My Facebook favorite meme of the day on the subject reads The spread of Covid 19 depends is based on two factors How dense the population is How dense the population is
The right-hand column is more technically called the "case fatality rate," I believe. This rate varies wildly, both from location to location and from week to week in any given location. It is not a dependable indicator, from what I've read on statistics. The CFR will increase the closer one gets to the tail end of the 'curve'. And it will vary according to the average age of a region's population, the quality of health care in general in a region, and loads of other little factors. The newest official estimate for the total USA deaths from this outbreak is around 60,000 total deaths. That includes those who die after we reopen things (because we've flattened the curve) and more catch it. This would be roughly equivalent to the total deaths during any year's flu season here. But that number is in addition to the regular flu deaths this year, and these Covid19 deaths largely came in a big cluster which could choke some hospitals like a too-large slug of whiskey down a narrow windpipe. I don't have the graphic, but my wife said she saw this next thing: someone had shown a US map of where the most Covid-19 deaths were located, and compared it to a US map of where the most abortions take place... and it matched up rather well. Coincidence? I don't know.
I agree that there will be any number of factors that will affect the variance. I do make the point the France and Germany are two European Countries that have not dissimilar land masses, not dissimilar populations, and a common boundary, yet Germany seems to have significant more cases and significantly less fatalities than France by a significant measure. As this variance is statistically significant, it does allow the question as to why. Is France over-reporting or is Germany under-reporting, or is there some other reason for the significant difference? I know not the answer. Given that the figures are cumulative the variances along the progression of the virus will be somewhat flattened out, and I am sure that some variances will not be explained in the short term. In the end the other important thing to remember that they are not just statistics, but rather persons - each made in the image and after the likeness of God.